MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c981b82b28efbebf359a281749c89483f728c9b9c2e4b2c636eb37ecc016ca4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfcc…441bbacked Over | 31c | 18,082$5,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,532.64 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 16,301$12,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,115.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 42c | 14,676$6,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,519.07 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Under | 55c | 6,801$3,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,736 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Under | 55c | 6,655$3,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,660 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 27c | 3,928$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,854.72 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 73c | 2,700$1,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,971 | 171 | 56.1%96 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 52c | 2,030$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.6 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 35c | 1,440$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.31 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 53c | 1,248$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.64 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 55c | 1,214$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.7 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 53c | 1,200$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…87cfbacked Over | 45c | 1,180$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Over | 47c | 1,051$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.06 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 55c | 700$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…bfaebacked Under | 77c | 500$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 230 | 60%138 W · 92 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 46c | 499.99$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.99 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 9c | 308$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 55c | 303.5$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.93 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 53c | 302$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.88 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 666 | 45.5%303 W · 363 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Under | 55c | 280.61$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.11 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed Under | 55c | 225$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.75 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17d4…d3aabacked Over | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 52c | 199.48$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.73 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Over | 51c | 176$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d89…9ddfbacked Over | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 49c | 86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd307…f2b5backed Under | 74c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Over | 47c | 63.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646e…294dbacked Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb0…e845backed Under | 55c | 36.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Tigers vs. GuardiansTigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.