TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Tigers vs. Guardians

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tigersof Tigers, Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,042,497
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,586,556

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,042,497 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 406 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecc7…fb2abacked Tigers46c432,911$199,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233,771.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Guardians52c303,944$158,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158,299.411,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Tigers47c212,693$99,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112,727.42955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1d…74ccbacked Tigers47c200,670$94,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106,355.259440.4%38 W · 56 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Guardians53c165,000$87,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87,4509462.8%59 W · 35 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Guardians47c128,914$60,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,181.941,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Guardians54c112,000$60,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,279.966855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Tigers47c108,409$50,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,456.631963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+28.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Guardians55c100,000$55,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,0007753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Tigers51c95,650$48,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,859.6545248.2%218 W · 234 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Guardians54c94,471$51,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,098.266653%35 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Guardians53c74,440$39,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,446.4143949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Guardians53c58,173$30,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,831.7238751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Guardians54c54,378$29,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,607.8313246.2%61 W · 71 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Guardians53c50,025$26,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,613.525453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Guardians54c50,000$27,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,0002955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Guardians53c50,000$26,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,499.986058.3%35 W · 25 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaefe…1e4abacked Tigers49c30,696$15,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,662.712462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29bf…25b0backed Tigers70c30,303$21,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,142.77875%6 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Tigers54c28,676$15,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,098.991,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Tigers46c27,115$12,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,532.1238949.1%191 W · 198 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Guardians46c27,074$12,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,422.959,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Guardians44c25,959$11,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,432.517341.1%30 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Guardians54c25,000$13,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,499.9926949.4%133 W · 136 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Tigers48c24,668$11,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,844.811759%69 W · 48 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Tigers56c23,244$12,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,288.962,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Guardians31c21,100$6,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,596.512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Guardians54c20,725$11,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,191.7255053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Tigers48c20,453$9,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,590.0448254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Guardians53c20,000$10,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,599.9953150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Guardians53c13,250$7,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0577651.3%39 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Guardians52c12,049$6,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,265.667349.3%36 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1e…88d5backed Guardians54c12,000$6,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,4807058.6%41 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Guardians54c10,000$5,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,35056451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Tigers47c10,000$4,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,349.9871751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Tigers46c9,581$4,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,134.6414153.9%76 W · 65 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Tigers50c9,399$4,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,701.521,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Tigers74c8,948$6,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,322.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+71.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5d8…e9a1backed Guardians55c8,040$4,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4223237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid+9.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x491c…c3c6backed Guardians54c8,000$4,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,32010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2943…177abacked Tigers47c8,000$3,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2401100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Tigers47c8,000$3,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,259.9310647.2%50 W · 56 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-10.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd73b…70adbacked Guardians55c7,823$4,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30214453.5%77 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Guardians53c7,000$3,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,71044749.2%220 W · 227 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfcc…441bbacked Tigers46c6,861$3,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,704.872951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd559…05a0backed Tigers62c6,473$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,473.05250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Tigers56c6,133$3,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,726.8178445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Guardians53c6,077$3,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,202.7311551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Tigers47c6,004$2,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,182.049255.4%51 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Guardians55c6,000$3,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,29015650.6%79 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe973…7338backed Tigers46c6,000$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2401566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+47.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Guardians1c5,833$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.615053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34f7…28bfbacked Tigers63c5,633$3,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,090.58580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Tigers48c5,555$2,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,888.5930255.6%168 W · 134 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e2c…ba05backed Guardians54c5,100$2,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,753.962360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Tigers46c5,005$2,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,702.457343.8%32 W · 41 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Guardians41c5,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0503040%12 W · 18 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-25.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Guardians51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.993826.3%10 W · 28 L-6.9wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-42.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Guardians54c4,939$2,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,660.1463152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Guardians46c4,863$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,225.114045%18 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ea9…e3c0backed Guardians53c4,500$2,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,384.992147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x305e…7d29backed Tigers47c4,477$2,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,371.693345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Guardians51c4,429$2,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,243.354941%225 W · 324 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Guardians54c4,360$2,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,354.411456.1%64 W · 50 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Guardians54c4,327$2,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,320.991741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x669a…dd31backed Tigers47c4,250$1,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,252.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Guardians54c4,164$2,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,248.561,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Guardians23c3,998$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.66845.6%31 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd62b…86d0backed Guardians55c3,636$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Guardians40c3,633$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,466.461,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Tigers62c3,622$2,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,383.457548%36 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Guardians56c3,600$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00024154.4%131 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Guardians51c3,477$1,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,772.711,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0d9…da5ebacked Guardians53c3,396$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8001643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed Tigers52c3,099$1,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,501.021376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick58cpaid+31.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Guardians41c3,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.0532042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Guardians34c2,893$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.3351334.5%177 W · 336 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Tigers60c2,891$1,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1684,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Guardians52c2,885$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.273352.4%384 W · 349 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1158…d8fabacked Guardians55c2,727$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Guardians54c2,709$1,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,462.862045%9 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians54c2,702$1,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,446.772,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51e4…15b4backed Tigers46c2,683$1,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd724…b805backed Tigers54c2,419$1,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.382152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Tigers46c2,174$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.9163052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Tigers47c2,127$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.2140348.4%195 W · 208 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f60…bbccbacked Guardians25c2,091$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5211428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-48.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d85…228ebacked Tigers49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.822352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72b7…e360backed Tigers43c2,019$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,142.666152.5%32 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfced…2523backed Guardians53c1,980$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e84…2b5dbacked Tigers48c1,979$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x075f…833cbacked Tigers46c1,977$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.721233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-32.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Guardians1c1,918$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.945852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3145…50f0backed Guardians54c1,914$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7a5…3ec1backed Tigers47c1,914$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Guardians55c1,820$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00191749.9%458 W · 459 L-3.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae81…f04bbacked Guardians55c1,818$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00037857.4%217 W · 161 L+1.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed Guardians55c1,818$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Guardians56c1,799$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00047953.2%255 W · 224 L+18.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Guardians55c1,764$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.21,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.