World Politics · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x316b8388bea4ea2fa42a8cd1ec62963156c2b3bec9b40b3f97066542c76d569b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 39c | 120.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 23c | 95.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 87.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 553 | 51.2%283 W · 270 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 72c | 82.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…c072backed Yes | 25c | 56.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +190%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 45.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked No | 60c | 45.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 24c | 42.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 154 | 15.6%24 W · 130 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…c191backed No | 59c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 38.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 34.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | +14.6wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 73c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 77c | 32.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 75c | 23.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 73c | 22.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 75c | 21.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 72c | 20.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 72c | 16.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 71c | 14.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on August 25?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on August 25?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.