Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Lille OSC vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3194fe4578c0299522c1b2909f749d81c1df537220167f4a504c75deabc3be50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 62c | 7,608$4,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,880.79 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57e…bbd6backed Yes | 39c | 6,422$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…3070backed Yes | 28c | 5,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 67c | 3,673$2,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,478.94 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 34c | 2,119$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.7 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 20c | 1,050$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.5 | 797 | 32.2%257 W · 540 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 27c | 999.73$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.93 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 33c | 978.94$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.16 | 785 | 44.8%352 W · 433 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 39c | 928.14$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.1 | 771 | 41.8%322 W · 449 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…9838backed Yes | 28c | 714$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.92 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 68c | 705.92$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.72 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 27c | 699.59$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.12 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 613.14$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.77 | 920 | 50.9%468 W · 452 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked No | 48c | 541.67$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.67 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7e…7f73backed Yes | 36c | 416.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 73c | 380.89$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.33 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 28c | 360$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1e94backed Yes | 28c | 358.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.71 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 72c | 357.13$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed No | 33c | 336.36$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.18 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…980bbacked Yes | 28c | 321.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked Yes | 27c | 250$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 59c | 229.17$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.11 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 66c | 204$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.64 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a36…4121backed Yes | 24c | 193.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed No | 40c | 172$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed No | 39c | 155.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.59 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Yes | 27c | 151.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 79c | 129.3$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Yes | 27c | 116.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…a21ebacked No | 73c | 99.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 72c | 83.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked No | 37c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 71c | 78.87$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…4293backed Yes | 28c | 76.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e94…f7bfbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 27c | 63.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de3…3ad2backed Yes | 62c | 63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 47c | 58.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…f95abacked Yes | 27c | 55.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 62c | 52.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x621e…471fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed No | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…1511backed Yes | 70c | 43.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 62cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…3dd0backed Yes | 67c | 43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked No | 33c | 43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1703backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed No | 72c | 32.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 72c | 28.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 180 | 49.4%89 W · 91 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…4f81backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lille OSC vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?this page
- Will Lille OSC win on 2026-01-29?Yes won
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-01-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.