Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31a106de193c0a94d9adaff289cf6b5a920a0873892ee36be8463b6c123b7b50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 0c | 12,742$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 23c | 1,055$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.42 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 5c | 780.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 16c | 592.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.11 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 32c | 585.44$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.94 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 2c | 500.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 48c | 324.07$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.56 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 3c | 323.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 50c | 300.09$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.87 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 61c | 249.46$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 34c | 185.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 70c | 164.07$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 51c | 146.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.67 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 30c | 145$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 17c | 135.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 131.76$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 124.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 17c | 120.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 51c | 117.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2087…35e5backed Yes | 13c | 111.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 19c | 104.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29cd…f4c7backed No | 60c | 100.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 21c | 100.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 33c | 93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 20c | 88.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 16c | 85.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 20c | 84.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 40c | 74.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 59c | 67.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 65.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 55c | 57.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 35c | 57.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 32c | 45.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 38c | 42.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532e…d5b1backed Yes | 34c | 42.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 40.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3023…465cbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 39.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 38.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 32c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 72c | 37.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 62c | 32.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 66c | 20.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 70c | 17.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…b24fbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or below on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C or higher on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.