Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9419e1ec287cae874cc59a8f12729a0d89ac4c387b749818c89ce58741449a15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 3c | 1,146$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 31c | 902.77$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 573.39$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 438.29$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.94 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 34c | 341.6$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.14 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 326.13$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.07 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 270.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 224.55$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 37c | 220.88$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.37 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 15c | 219.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 15c | 199.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 194.59$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 38c | 184.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 167.09$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 70c | 158$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 145.42$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 136.06$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 77c | 119.25$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 27c | 116.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 63c | 107.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 34c | 100.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 20c | 100.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 96.18$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 35c | 96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 86.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 85.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 84.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 17c | 83.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…62a3backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7a83backed Yes | 35c | 71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 76c | 65.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 31c | 62.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 77c | 58.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 37c | 58.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfb…fd5abacked Yes | 29c | 54.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 52.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 69c | 43.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 39.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 62c | 36.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…6a52backed Yes | 39c | 36.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 39c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 66c | 35.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 33.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 70c | 32.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 32.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 29.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…8d4abacked No | 72c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 73c | 26.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 70c | 25.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 25.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 66c | 21.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 73c | 20.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 79c | 19.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 68c | 15.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2248…53d0backed No | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…b24fbacked No | 70c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 71c | 15.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed No | 77c | 14.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or below on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C or higher on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.