Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08f049c30e7c6382652e830d99bed6a180e0fa819177a3f67588fe0fd901c4d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 0c | 10,596$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 29c | 1,570$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.98 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,069$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 1c | 993.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 12c | 809.66$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.64 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 65c | 792.03$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.39 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes | 31c | 682.5$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.98 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 27c | 587.78$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.99 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 3c | 510.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 70c | 438.35$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.39 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 29c | 419.41$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.06 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 66c | 307.8$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.55 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 8c | 300.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 70c | 281.78$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 261.91$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 25c | 248.39$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 5c | 246.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 214$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 70c | 177.37$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 173.6$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 30c | 171.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 26c | 146.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…eb78backed No | 70c | 142.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 60c | 138.84$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 32c | 122.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 35c | 117.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 34c | 111.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 99.55$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 31c | 98.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 88.07$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 67c | 78.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 68c | 76.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 47c | 74.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56aa…9e31backed No | 72c | 69.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 34c | 68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 34c | 57.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 54.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 28c | 52.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 48.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 27c | 47.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 78c | 47.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 46.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x532e…d5b1backed Yes | 34c | 45.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 53c | 43.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 67c | 42.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 74c | 41.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed No | 75c | 41.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2f…d29ebacked Yes | 32c | 41.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 35c | 41.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 41.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 38.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 37c | 35.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 66c | 33.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9e…f411backed No | 60c | 30.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 36c | 30.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 29.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 26.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 77c | 25.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 44c | 24.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c8…b823backed No | 67c | 22.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 70c | 21.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 78c | 19.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 68c | 18.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or below on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C or higher on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.