Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31ac8f63aa5eb6602d255b42aa4796b579bf969b37bc93498f3b7788fad6fdd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,560$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.85 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 79c | 763.21$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.15 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed Yes | 18c | 554.85$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 15c | 395.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 21c | 350.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.23 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 26c | 336.87$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.64 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 53c | 309.8$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.99 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 46c | 271.23$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.06 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 5c | 270.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 231.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked Yes | 72c | 214.79$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.94 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 209.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 184.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 50c | 182$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.73 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 178.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 168$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 35c | 160.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 157.38$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 18c | 154.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 60c | 152.1$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.16 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 150$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 147.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 30c | 133.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.81 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 32c | 132.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.96 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 53c | 129.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 27c | 105.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 97.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 50c | 94.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5b…faddbacked Yes | 26c | 78.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 69c | 72.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 71.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 43c | 69.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 35c | 63.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…b95bbacked Yes | 45c | 58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 58c | 48.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 36c | 46.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x176a…4ac5backed No | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +130.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…281bbacked Yes | 40c | 37.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 65c | 30.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 44c | 29.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 65c | 28.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 40c | 27.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6170…da27backed Yes | 52c | 25.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 56c | 20.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…2bb6backed No | 57c | 19.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe2…eb81backed Yes | 78c | 14.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.