Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd82b6407c3fdee6ca852cf4bcf2376d8268748712bac155aff548d7461afd5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 680.49$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.96 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed Yes | 29c | 602.81$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.22 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 396.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.05 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed No | 70c | 389.98$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.29 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…286bbacked Yes | 16c | 372.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.06 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 69c | 309.86$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.86 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 209.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed No | 74c | 206.52$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.26 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 37c | 199$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.17 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 177.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 60c | 171.91$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.54 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 32c | 162.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.66 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 140.88$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 140.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 9c | 123.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 79c | 122.3$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.07 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 122.22$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 74c | 119.1$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 39c | 118.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 116.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 52c | 116.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 59c | 113.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 21c | 100.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.01 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 23c | 99.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.47 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 22c | 89.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 27c | 87.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 59c | 86.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 25c | 85.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 24c | 83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 38c | 81.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 23c | 76.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 66.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 63.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 61.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 60.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 54.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 49.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…9a6bbacked No | 78c | 38.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 66c | 36.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 28.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa957…7638backed Yes | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 51c | 27.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 26.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 78c | 19.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 79c | 18.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 74c | 15.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.