Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Köln vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31b8fb0e1a2bd0ee5c5566a46718187edf92c0fc5144bee93f1bfa1fea4acb41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 62c | 2,090$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.66 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 38c | 1,620$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.87 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 34c | 1,165$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.71 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…e38ebacked No | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 37c | 486.5$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 63c | 444.44$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.44 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e46…e394backed Yes | 67c | 260.58$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.07 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 62c | 201.61$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.61 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 38c | 184.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 33c | 180.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf1…99d3backed Yes | 77c | 171.08$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 23c | 153.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 38c | 138$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 35c | 130.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…798abacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 61c | 98.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 38c | 83.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…13d5backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 65c | 69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…0ef8backed Yes | 61c | 63.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +43%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49e4…8282backed Yes | 65c | 57.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 36c | 52.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 65c | 46.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Yes | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 71c | 42.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 36c | 31.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…568abacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Köln vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Köln vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.