Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Köln vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0ed6905750c6eff99d5e2ea867132db6327986536af41523d57504b126ea91d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 59c | 3,018$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780.62 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 2,336$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.76 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 2,161$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.57 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…3fb7backed Over | 67c | 1,816$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x408c…9a1dbacked Over | 54c | 1,287$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 1,041$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.36 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 46c | 1,026$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.69 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…3c1fbacked Over | 50c | 1,001$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 19c | 631.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 69c | 556.63$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Over | 54c | 499.99$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 21c | 350.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Over | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c34…dfafbacked Over | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 19c | 204.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433d…f9e8backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 58c | 199.98$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…6bf0backed Over | 59c | 175.86$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 75c | 160$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 69c | 144.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Over | 19c | 110.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 20c | 67.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 41c | 62.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 39c | 59.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Under | 79c | 50.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 61c | 45.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Under | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 34c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 45c | 34.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…434dbacked Over | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 78c | 20.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Köln vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5this page
- 1. FC Köln vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Köln vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.