Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31ceff5e5d0f2f265bb19236328e5411aaba052a156b7da5dbd4b1a47b35ce3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 2,008$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 64c | 1,317$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.15 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 37c | 392.61$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.27 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 270.64$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 246.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 189.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 76c | 178.33$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 80c | 175.48$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 76c | 139.97$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 75c | 122.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 39c | 112.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 33c | 106.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 76c | 97.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 15c | 93.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 37c | 91.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked No | 79c | 85.23$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 75c | 80.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a78…f457backed No | 70c | 75.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 39c | 71.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 70.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddce…7194backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 76c | 63.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 75c | 63.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 62.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 70c | 59.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 28c | 51.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 23c | 45.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 36c | 39.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5871…c0bdbacked Yes | 28c | 35.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 35.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 33.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed No | 77c | 32.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 63c | 28.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 28.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed No | 75c | 25.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 74c | 21.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 75c | 15.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0916…9ad0backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d42…a046backed No | 73c | 13.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.