Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x732a4a7e2995bb46866dc7056903583d7901864261b3620fc9cac62d40b30efd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 467.51$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.66 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 14c | 227.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.72 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 20c | 209.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.8 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 79c | 173.4$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 41c | 172.03$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.03 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 160$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 141.23$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 59c | 137.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 112.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 13c | 111.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 102.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.58 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 101.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 79c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 71c | 94.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 91.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 42c | 90.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 55c | 89.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 34c | 87.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 26c | 83.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 81.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 20c | 75.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 66.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 49c | 61.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 61.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 26c | 58.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 32c | 57.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 55.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 50.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 64c | 49.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 47.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 75c | 41.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 24c | 41.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 41c | 37.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 32c | 36.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 67c | 35.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cf…2b63backed Yes | 31c | 34.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 66c | 30.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 37c | 26.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 45c | 25.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 75c | 25.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 68c | 23.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 69c | 16.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 68c | 16.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 74c | 13.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.