Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Ruse vs Muchova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31e8844ea8cd35df6d6e0ecfd6d3ec46f42381575c664c6df301de8e3133eb05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Muchovaof Ruse, Muchova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Ruse | 6c | 609.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…527abacked Muchova | 66c | 542.39$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ruse | 42c | 499.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.63 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Ruse | 6c | 296.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Ruse | 39c | 255.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 632 | 52.8%334 W · 298 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Muchova | 58c | 234.48$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.48 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Muchova | 61c | 215$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Ruse | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ruse | 33c | 142.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Muchova | 62c | 116.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 330 | 62.7%207 W · 123 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Ruse | 39c | 89.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Ruse | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Muchova | 62c | 79.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…5e62backed Ruse | 41c | 61.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 239 | 32.6%78 W · 161 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Ruse | 37c | 57.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1c…2679backed Muchova | 59c | 50.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcb…9f08backed Ruse | 41c | 48.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 206 | 35.9%74 W · 132 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7fd6backed Ruse | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 27.4%29 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Muchova | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 485 | 52.4%254 W · 231 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…e0ccbacked Muchova | 66c | 45.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Muchova | 60c | 42.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Muchova | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Muchova | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Ruse | 45c | 34.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Muchova | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 578 | 45.7%264 W · 314 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Muchova | 63c | 16.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Ruse vs Muchovathis page
- Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina MuchovaKarolina Muchova won
- Ruse vs. Muchova: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Ruse vs. Muchova: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Set 2 Winner: Ruse vs MuchovaMuchova won
- Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Ruse (+1.5)Muchova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.