Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 51°F or below on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31fcb879baae94cc5050a0c26996e883d85175d3785a742577406eabcaf36f03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 15c | 625.7$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.48 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 3c | 380.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 37c | 354.15$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.11 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 28c | 327.07$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 63c | 317$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.71 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 71c | 264.72$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 10c | 250$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…096fbacked No | 26c | 208.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 73c | 202.08$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8076…85f9backed No | 22c | 138.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 66c | 122.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 31c | 91.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…ea16backed No | 28c | 89.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 72c | 74.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 66c | 68.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 76c | 67.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 45c | 49.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…9888backed Yes | 73c | 42.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b5…4768backed Yes | 73c | 40.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 72c | 39.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 59c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 68c | 37.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…9e87backed Yes | 80c | 32.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 72c | 30.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bba…a69fbacked Yes | 64c | 29.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 80c | 25.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa6…4772backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3e…f2b1backed Yes | 79c | 22.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 73c | 20.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…e65bbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…9a37backed Yes | 67c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 51°F or below on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.