Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31ffb9e6c68fd11481c18a84587be418695a91d26760b730f701420fe62a2552
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 13,530$10,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,210.35 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 8c | 10,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 80c | 1,990$1,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Over | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 789.2$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.55 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 71c | 633.8$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 500.69$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.68 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 45c | 444$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03b9…7e74backed Over | 15c | 400$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c6…367dbacked Over | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 51c | 251.97$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.27 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Under | 43c | 248.86$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.85 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 54c | 185.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.14 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed Over | 13c | 146.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 27cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 96 | 21.9%21 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca51…fca8backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Over | 27c | 91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 15c | 89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.65 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…8edcbacked Over | 68c | 80.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…a1c4backed Over | 65c | 80.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Over | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…13d5backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ac…7828backed Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.