Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e1637dd2b588366d680909d17db3ba4316681885d929b2ef8f176d959f06ff6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 16,640$11,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,638.46 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 32c | 15,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,799.99 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 48c | 3,250$1,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,683.53 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ba…d291backed Over | 66c | 1,680$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Under | 66c | 886.65$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.46 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 66c | 681.82$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 65c | 449.99$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.49 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Over | 64c | 400$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…3db2backed Over | 65c | 392.53$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb50a…3348backed Over | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Under | 36c | 280.11$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over | 66c | 256.45$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 36c | 250$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Under | 37c | 224.32$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.32 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 50c | 200.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03b9…7e74backed Over | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 33c | 196.21$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.46 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 35c | 183.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.48 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…c0fabacked Over | 66c | 181.82$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 63cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 68c | 173.17$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…22d2backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…0b87backed Over | 61c | 105.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed Over | 44c | 104.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 27cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 21.9%21 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7fe3backed Over | 65c | 64.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9afb…2eb5backed Over | 33c | 57.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 67c | 50.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb063…c9d1backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 63c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…2ddcbacked Over | 37c | 31.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.1wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f21…dc40backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1956…5348backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 67c | 24.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 21.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d35…8518backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Under won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.