Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ec656963c1fca07444a4dbb7dfce84061d70bcf7fe9313e8ef250067a2d2d98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 4,696$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.01 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 80c | 3,999$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.3 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 2,708$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.62 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 79c | 1,356$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.7 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 19c | 1,003$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.38 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Over | 6c | 875$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 55c | 299.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed Over | 19c | 255$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 27cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 7c | 249$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bde9backed Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Over | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked Over | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 45c | 149.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 57c | 131.24$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 43c | 122.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…bcd8backed Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Over | 45c | 104.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Over | 27c | 89.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 44c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Under won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.