Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Nantes vs. Paris FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3210e267b3baf5a4591f7e56a4085d82bb1bf3661102be4aa12b71bcaa5869e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked No | 71c | 19,388$13,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,622.52 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +4.4wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 29c | 11,330$3,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,286.53 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe348…a303backed Yes | 51c | 10,800$5,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,536 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 46c | 4,831$2,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,612.5 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 4,726$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.84 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 30c | 2,521$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.19 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Yes | 30c | 2,007$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.1 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7a…7625backed Yes | 58c | 1,311$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 30c | 1,287$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 47c | 1,061$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.28 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,053$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.37 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 16c | 1,007$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.09 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 628.95$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.48 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 71c | 610.3$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.99 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb8…5466backed Yes | 24c | 466.67$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 31c | 400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Yes | 29c | 397.41$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.25 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Yes | 15c | 380.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 70c | 343$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.9 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 31c | 310.41$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 16c | 293.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked No | 69c | 280.82$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.05 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 29c | 250.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 19c | 232.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -58%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Yes | 30c | 193$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 31c | 175$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 70c | 158.37$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +6.0wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeb19…3527backed Yes | 60c | 133.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Yes | 30c | 110.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…cbcdbacked Yes | 30c | 91.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 35c | 91.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 228 | 54.4%124 W · 104 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 30c | 84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e87…2171backed Yes | 36c | 81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 25c | 78.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 29c | 78.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed No | 76c | 77.22$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 70c | 63.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed No | 54c | 57.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 28c | 53.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 30c | 53.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 142 | 47.9%68 W · 74 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…f023backed No | 69c | 51.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…7d4cbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 68c | 49.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed No | 70c | 48.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…4216backed Yes | 30c | 39.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e74…32c3backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…db04backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc506…39fdbacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Yes | 40c | 26.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…8a3dbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…ad43backed Yes | 58c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 204 | 54.4%111 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Nantes vs. Paris FC end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Nantes win on 2026-01-18?No won
- Will Paris FC win on 2026-01-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.