Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3211027a90ca7864cb6c33075d3006d0c480eb0c74bc54b9e1e9d24c2a772191
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Missouri Tigersof Vanderbilt Commodores, Missouri Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 44c | 4,650$2,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,031.64 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Missouri Tigers | 56c | 3,473$1,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.06 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Missouri Tigers | 56c | 2,500$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 44c | 1,782$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.08 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Missouri Tigers | 57c | 1,225$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.2 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 44c | 376$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.54 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…9f1cbacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 46c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Missouri Tigers | 58c | 56.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Missouri Tigers | 58c | 51.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Vanderbilt Commodores | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 44c | 34.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 44c | 32.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 378 | 35.7%135 W · 243 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 44c | 28.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…c72bbacked Missouri Tigers | 56c | 27.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Vanderbilt Commodores | 42c | 23.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores (-2.5)Missouri Tigers won
- Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores (-3.5)Missouri Tigers won
- Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Missouri TigersMissouri Tigers won
- Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Missouri Tigers: O/U 153.5Over won
- Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Missouri Tigers: O/U 154.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.