World Politics · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32241d081ace4efcf4132fbd2500d8f9cf7da356b34e3e66295ab683e0e28033
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 3c | 601.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +695.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 39c | 513.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.03 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 378.96$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.16 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 219$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.54 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 61c | 197.95$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.75 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 11c | 125.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.16 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 114.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.21 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 92.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b82…73c3backed No | 78c | 86.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 78c | 86.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 55.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 50.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 48.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 51c | 38.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 39c | 36.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…622dbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 52c | 29.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1a…af71backed No | 69c | 21.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 67c | 20.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 53c | 20.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…a6e4backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 60c | 16.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on July 1?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on July 1?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.