World Politics · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb7b3bd7f84c683b534151af575fa14d4b5d28388578fdec7613b14520f8283b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 32c | 261.29$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 159.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 12c | 110.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 90.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 82.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 81.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…622dbacked Yes | 17c | 73.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 78c | 64.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 63cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed No | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 45c | 38.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 54c | 28.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…dc27backed Yes | 40c | 27.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fa…d3fbbacked Yes | 46c | 21.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -74%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…3f36backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on July 1?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on July 1?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.