Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3224ab7a5bb31783bd851ccbe5333e4ba30c472e1ec9c533f2867dc77f8f2f34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 18c | 269.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 254.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.47 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 48c | 251.24$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.53 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 226.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 206.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 31c | 143.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 26c | 125.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 24c | 113.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.3 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 34c | 109.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.47 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 103.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 103$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 102.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 99.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 29c | 86.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 51c | 82.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 77.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…7d4bbacked Yes | 31c | 71.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 20c | 70.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 68.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 68c | 58.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…4fd0backed No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -10.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 53.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 80c | 40.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 76c | 36.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 57c | 35.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 78c | 31.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked No | 76c | 29.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 61c | 27.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…d9adbacked No | 77c | 25.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed No | 78c | 25.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 70c | 25.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 64c | 23.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…f3c2backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 58c | 19.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 79c | 18.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 71c | 18.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.