Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x528e21121c5290c022cb9508581147954f78a3803f3ad80c90c46c85b8ecbd8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 58c | 778.2$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.7 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 339.58$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…76a5backed No | 69c | 334.97$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.34 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 45c | 219.22$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 197.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 45c | 115.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 45c | 110.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 110.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 52c | 109.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 47c | 107.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 32c | 105.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.17 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 55c | 97.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 87.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 50c | 85.39$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 85.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 32c | 84.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 48c | 82.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ff…afdabacked Yes | 58c | 81.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…5ffcbacked Yes | 50c | 72.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 70c | 71.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 41c | 68.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 48c | 62.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 43c | 61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 40c | 61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 45c | 60.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 57.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 44c | 56.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 51c | 55.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 52c | 54.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 55c | 50.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 44c | 48.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 45.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 58c | 44.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 43c | 44.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…c5dfbacked Yes | 45c | 44.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 42c | 42.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 56c | 42.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…bba2backed Yes | 44c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 56c | 40.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 38.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…f4cabacked Yes | 52c | 38.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 36c | 38.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 43c | 38.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 37.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 53c | 37.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3924…ee05backed Yes | 49c | 37.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…1fe9backed Yes | 56c | 36.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 54c | 36.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 63c | 36.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 45c | 34.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…1c88backed Yes | 55c | 34.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 44c | 33.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 32.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 46c | 32.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 42c | 31.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 55c | 31.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 57c | 31.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 50c | 30.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 66c | 30.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked Yes | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 59c | 29.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 60c | 27.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 53c | 27.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…ec75backed Yes | 71c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…1840backed No | 53c | 26.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 60c | 26.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 43c | 25.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 44c | 25.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 45c | 24.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 54c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 56c | 22.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…d60dbacked Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 60c | 21.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 55c | 21.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 52c | 21.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 76c | 13.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.