Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cdd0b9932586ce6407848ed31bdbf45601b080daca6f38fca44f5c03f1aed52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked No | 79c | 253.92$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 27c | 219.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 36c | 190.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 66c | 184.99$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 176.74$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 27c | 150.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 70c | 139.63$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 136.03$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 32c | 124.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 74c | 103.66$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 25c | 102.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 97.74$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 73c | 86.86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39ca…ce0abacked Yes | 19c | 78.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +299.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 78.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 76.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 19c | 73.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 21c | 71.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 67.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…5ffcbacked Yes | 36c | 66.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 25c | 61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked Yes | 27c | 60.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 29c | 60.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 55.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 36c | 55.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 78c | 55.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 54.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 64c | 45.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 69c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 36c | 41.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a109backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x016d…e9b4backed Yes | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 69c | 38.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…bba2backed Yes | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 38c | 34.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 67c | 33.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 70c | 31.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 37c | 29.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 79c | 28.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked No | 78c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 19.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 19.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 78c | 15.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.