Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Carstensz vs GLYPH - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3229061a7b6b25f4cdd6e5184a7d50c8cc4451ff55e5d15602806951e31bf006
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carstenszof Carstensz, GLYPH
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x324c…93d9backed GLYPH | 1c | 2,100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 104 | 0%0 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed GLYPH | 53c | 943.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.96 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Carstensz | 50c | 903.01$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.07 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked GLYPH | 2c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked GLYPH | 77c | 794.43$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.54 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Carstensz | 30c | 747.66$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.89 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…a576backed GLYPH | 74c | 698.87$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.72 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd83…7d7cbacked GLYPH | 20c | 676.02$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.96 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed Carstensz | 39c | 640.66$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.8 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…2812backed GLYPH | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked GLYPH | 53c | 403.39$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.8 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked GLYPH | 53c | 388.71$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.9 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Carstensz | 56c | 336.89$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.18 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Carstensz | 50c | 286.29$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.57 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ef…840bbacked GLYPH | 62c | 263.88$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.29 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Carstensz | 28c | 259.3$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.7 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed GLYPH | 70c | 249.71$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.8 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed GLYPH | 68c | 220.59$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 500 | 53%265 W · 235 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Carstensz | 27c | 219.3$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.58 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Carstensz | 20c | 204.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.99 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Carstensz | 33c | 203.59$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.41 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed GLYPH | 53c | 156.92$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked GLYPH | 60c | 133.86$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.65 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed GLYPH | 55c | 125.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3e…9120backed GLYPH | 41c | 118.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Carstensz | 72c | 113.06$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Carstensz | 47c | 105.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bc…bf2fbacked Carstensz | 31c | 104.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 178 | 53.4%95 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf5…c393backed GLYPH | 42c | 98.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked GLYPH | 69c | 96.46$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed GLYPH | 62c | 88.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Carstensz | 58c | 87.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Carstensz | 51c | 73.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Carstensz | 19c | 72.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…dc17backed Carstensz | 78c | 66.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 73 | 76.7%56 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22d6…b7b5backed Carstensz | 44c | 65.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb7…dd4bbacked GLYPH | 56c | 65.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed GLYPH | 71c | 63.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Carstensz | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked GLYPH | 47c | 59.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked GLYPH | 31c | 55.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Carstensz | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked Carstensz | 33c | 53.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Carstensz | 30c | 51.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed GLYPH | 25c | 43.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Carstensz | 61c | 41.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked GLYPH | 67c | 40.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed GLYPH | 51c | 36.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Carstensz | 36c | 30.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86a…644dbacked GLYPH | 51c | 28.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…7807backed Carstensz | 47c | 24.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs GLYPH - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs GLYPH (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsGLYPH won
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs GLYPH - Game 2 WinnerGLYPH won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.