Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Carstensz vs GLYPH - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6efe5f9abb0e01fb801e4f889249839477daf1e8fab75737c6124de0c0bed20b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- GLYPHof Carstensz, GLYPH
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed GLYPH | 76c | 7,954$6,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,894.82 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Carstensz | 24c | 1,954$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.37 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Carstensz | 21c | 1,400$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.61 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Carstensz | 25c | 1,321$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.88 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Carstensz | 23c | 1,212$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.27 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Carstensz | 24c | 1,090$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.9 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked GLYPH | 76c | 1,009$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.43 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda46…d45bbacked Carstensz | 18c | 806.27$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Carstensz | 23c | 715.35$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.53 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Carstensz | 24c | 506.19$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.58 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Carstensz | 17c | 486.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Carstensz | 25c | 478.24$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Carstensz | 23c | 421.94$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed Carstensz | 33c | 226.81$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed GLYPH | 68c | 211.22$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Carstensz | 32c | 210.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Carstensz | 23c | 178.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ef…840bbacked GLYPH | 73c | 176.83$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Carstensz | 24c | 132.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed GLYPH | 78c | 114$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked GLYPH | 80c | 109.42$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked Carstensz | 28c | 102.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed GLYPH | 66c | 99.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Carstensz | 20c | 97.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked GLYPH | 70c | 96.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Carstensz | 22c | 74.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked GLYPH | 74c | 68.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bc…bf2fbacked Carstensz | 27c | 64.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 178 | 53.4%95 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Carstensz | 19c | 55.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…bb4abacked Carstensz | 27c | 38.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked GLYPH | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed GLYPH | 78c | 15.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs GLYPH - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs GLYPH (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsGLYPH won
- Dota 2: Carstensz vs GLYPH - Game 1 WinnerCarstensz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.