NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x322ae7b744167a506e3f15a12e18c26b1efbb6e07bf8f7cb6934c4b608dcd39a

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Oct 28, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $14,573
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $14,362

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,573 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6e82…752cbacked Over	52c	6,873$3,551 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,321.46	1,204	55.3%666 W · 538 L	+52.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Under	45c	3,665$1,667 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,667.46	710	52.1%370 W · 340 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	49c	3,522$1,714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,713.6	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc10…3f05backed Over	49c	1,434$703 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$731.49	96	50%48 W · 48 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	48c	1,321$628 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$627.79	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Under	45c	355.56$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	667	44.5%297 W · 370 L	-6.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Under	45c	323.14$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.24	857	42.6%365 W · 492 L	-15.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Under	47c	300$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142	418	48.3%202 W · 216 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde91…f20abacked Over	55c	200$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	157	45.2%71 W · 86 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Under	46c	88$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.48	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb963…5eefbacked Over	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf83…cad6backed Under	51c	34.37$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.53	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x793a…899abacked Under	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.34per pick	50cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5630…bcf6backed Under	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.21per pick	44cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6385…56a4backed Under	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa4…7838backed Under	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.22per pick	50cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5387…b792backed Under	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.5wins	-0.23per pick	50cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a0f…74adbacked Under	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.2wins	-0.22per pick	52cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2278…8270backed Under	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9038…216cbacked Under	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf231…6b8dbacked Under	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-41%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4891…6c5bbacked Under	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b2…c5ebbacked Under	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.32per pick	49cpaid	-75.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x46c3…242abacked Under	51c	27.94$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.25	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.3wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6aaa…6a4bbacked Under	51c	25.71$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.11	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-60%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40f…9733backed Under	51c	25.08$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.79	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	50cpaid	-60%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under	49c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.76	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf56d…4dcfbacked Under	51c	19.8$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event