NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d9cfdad601b1774e0b3d4ea10625f81154dc4d8ab4595448083c1ff5f440ebb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 1,593$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.88 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 52c | 774.97$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.67 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 381.51$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.06 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 54c | 231.48$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Under | 45c | 215.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 49c | 88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1407…ad3dbacked Under | 54c | 72.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…d081backed Under | 54c | 58.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…14c0backed Under | 54c | 46.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe67f…ed37backed Under | 54c | 43.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263d…fc47backed Under | 54c | 32.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…1e48backed Under | 55c | 30.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 30.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cda…9c9cbacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…bcf6backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94d6…89ecbacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabd1…844cbacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd817…b8e7backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f8…2d23backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…faccbacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f7…9ef1backed Under | 55c | 27.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c14…4573backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…6e95backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1327…fb60backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…0c47backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d1…a3cabacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa89…2f1bbacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d72…a88dbacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4efc…efdbbacked Over | 59c | 18.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066b…d15fbacked Under | 55c | 18.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55a7…24a0backed Under | 55c | 18.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5this page
- Hawks vs. BullsBulls won
- Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Over won
- Spread: Bulls (-1.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.