Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Fortuna Sittard vs. SBV Excelsior end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x323b53fffeac01ff27a957e667f1eeca7e3eebc16044f2f4bf13d4aca5c912ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd43…cd41backed No | 69c | 5,517$3,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710.29 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 25c | 3,500$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…5513backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 106 | 12.3%13 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 862.38$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.47 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 75c | 725.44$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.36 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 718.22$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.21 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 28c | 561.85$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.32 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 18c | 556.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 582 | 29.2%170 W · 412 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 75c | 399.99$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 375.43$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.3 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 362.29$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.67 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f7…2544backed Yes | 32c | 157.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -77%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked No | 73c | 143$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 79c | 137.96$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 134.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090b…2f01backed Yes | 26c | 129.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 23c | 118$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 15c | 100.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 28c | 69.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 292 | 44.9%131 W · 161 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…3d47backed Yes | 19c | 66.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 25c | 65.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 1,113 | 51%568 W · 545 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…dc7dbacked Yes | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…c3e2backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbb…92efbacked Yes | 26c | 45.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 45.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 137 | 70.8%97 W · 40 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed No | 75c | 44.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 27c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 76c | 41.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 479 | 26.9%129 W · 350 L | -32.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 284 | 46.1%131 W · 153 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Yes | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b54…0b79backed No | 73c | 27.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked No | 73c | 19.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd777…daf8backed No | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef80…6aa3backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75be…9a9ebacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fortuna Sittard vs. SBV Excelsior end in a draw?this page
- Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2026-02-20?Yes won
- Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-02-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.