F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x324ceb81f77d920c0aa4248dbfc3f784d5854476e402ed9961457c911ba34fca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Yes | 18c | 4,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 15c | 300.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5273…69f5backed Yes | 17c | 287.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 15c | 255.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes | 17c | 174.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda50…2a41backed Yes | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…eae9backed Yes | 17c | 127.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 37c | 125.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 79c | 104.76$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…e12fbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f9…677fbacked Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked No | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 14c | 82.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 14c | 77.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 17c | 73.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 80c | 61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf4…0939backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed No | 79c | 41.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc799…3bddbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 71c | 23.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18e7…ed30backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?this page
- Will Fernando Alonso win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Jack Doohan win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.