F1 · resolved market
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeef5eabd3198b1e6551d8e2e9610fb6dc0be8d5603f2abf6480c9e610e4f0f79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Yes | 16c | 948.41$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.75 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 16c | 512.05$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.91 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Yes | 18c | 430$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5273…69f5backed Yes | 20c | 250.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4862…1a17backed Yes | 19c | 206.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…bedfbacked Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec0…6d2abacked Yes | 17c | 119.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…f260backed Yes | 18c | 114.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…a74fbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…742cbacked Yes | 20c | 100.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa221…5b1fbacked Yes | 16c | 95.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ea…71b3backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed Yes | 16c | 85.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 15c | 80.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 122 | 46.7%57 W · 65 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?this page
- Will Fernando Alonso win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Jack Doohan win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.