CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: PHA (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3254b4a953088a013f53eec052c2535ecf8609a3350d617a580e118d33a259c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof Phantom, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Phantom | 1c | 19,854$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.13 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1e…5bb5backed Phantom | 24c | 2,502$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.87 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2217…1660backed Phantom | 1c | 1,684$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed Heroic | 76c | 911.97$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.4 | 294 | 40.5%119 W · 175 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Heroic | 46c | 122.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | +9.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Heroic | 50c | 122.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 114 | 53.5%61 W · 53 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…36ffbacked Heroic | 59c | 116.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +511.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked Heroic | 75c | 67.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 394 | 69.3%273 W · 121 L | +31.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8226…7a58backed Heroic | 52c | 58.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked Heroic | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…95b3backed Heroic | 70c | 37.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 141 | 69.5%98 W · 43 L | +13.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +15%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed Heroic | 48c | 31.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe53b…fe03backed Heroic | 80c | 25.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 423 | 71.9%304 W · 119 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…9a01backed Heroic | 70c | 17.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 296 | 61.1%181 W · 115 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: PHA (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 PlayoffsHeroic won
- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Phantom - Map 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Phantom - Map 2 WinnerPhantom won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Phantom (+1.5)Phantom won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.