TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heroicof Heroic, Phantom
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$962,485
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,088,222

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $962,485 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 525 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x89eb…cff9backed Heroic67c56,798$37,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,854.5936450.3%183 W · 181 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Heroic68c31,174$21,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,115.9775652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed Heroic66c27,249$17,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,264.7520354.2%110 W · 93 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked Heroic65c23,779$15,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,285.7763157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Phantom32c20,879$6,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,681.341649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked Heroic68c20,514$13,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,666.8314145.4%64 W · 77 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac75…1319backed Phantom33c20,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,60016449.4%81 W · 83 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked Phantom37c17,972$6,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,707.383834.2%13 W · 25 L-4.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed Phantom61c17,560$10,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,641.752147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe55a…ecf7backed Phantom34c17,495$5,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,905.28742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc568…1a8cbacked Phantom55c17,492$9,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,536.084843.8%21 W · 27 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Phantom33c13,013$4,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,358.25,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Phantom47c12,692$6,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,004.772,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38ce…1581backed Heroic73c12,576$9,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,382.52650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+31.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2d0…7bbfbacked Phantom36c11,095$3,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,994.376036.7%22 W · 38 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Phantom33c10,558$3,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,498.261,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Phantom38c10,000$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,80033359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bcb…398abacked Phantom33c8,743$2,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,868.071553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Phantom33c8,739$2,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,925.3380942.3%342 W · 467 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked Phantom36c8,337$3,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,001.3813043.1%56 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Heroic66c7,848$5,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,679.9692456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Heroic78c7,494$5,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.9742142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Phantom33c6,505$2,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,158.912,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Heroic55c6,420$3,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8821,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Phantom34c6,351$2,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,143.811,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Phantom32c6,213$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.6238841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Phantom32c5,996$1,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,893.872,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cfd…5c91backed Phantom29c5,579$1,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,595.4212627%34 W · 92 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Heroic49c5,534$2,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,807.0932348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe3…fec3backed Heroic68c5,326$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,726.01580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Phantom41c5,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,039.9932832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Heroic67c5,000$3,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.9838358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca9…02e1backed Phantom41c4,801$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.841250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb44d…d591backed Heroic64c4,701$3,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,685.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ea6…180dbacked Phantom31c4,500$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3952642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked Heroic55c4,500$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,02575056.8%426 W · 324 L+47.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Heroic57c4,473$2,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.131,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Phantom32c4,405$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.852,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb29f…45b5backed Phantom37c4,400$1,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6283641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Phantom32c4,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26061948%297 W · 322 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Heroic65c4,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40045058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Phantom31c3,907$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.7314846.6%69 W · 79 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Phantom40c3,893$1,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.362,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Heroic36c3,799$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,447.2661034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f3…7449backed Phantom8c3,750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-66.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde1e…7ac6backed Phantom8c3,750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30080%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7528…6539backed Phantom8c3,750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30080%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc980…b7d3backed Phantom8c3,750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe226…d580backed Phantom8c3,750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd494…bfafbacked Phantom8c3,750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30060%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc99d…bbfcbacked Phantom8c3,750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68f0…5488backed Phantom8c3,750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ad2…ec06backed Phantom8c3,750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30070%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bf1…294fbacked Phantom29c3,600$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.1713642.6%58 W · 78 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed Heroic69c3,581$2,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.089550.5%48 W · 47 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Phantom29c3,433$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.2223949%117 W · 122 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Phantom33c3,073$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.546555.1%256 W · 209 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked Heroic46c3,021$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.943152.9%228 W · 203 L+26.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcece…ffeebacked Heroic67c3,000$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99011844.1%52 W · 66 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Heroic57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,29037440.4%151 W · 223 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Phantom37c3,000$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,103.212,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Phantom37c2,810$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.826952.8%142 W · 127 L+12.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8eb…9d25backed Phantom38c2,768$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.82733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Phantom29c2,750$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79010454.8%57 W · 47 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Phantom30c2,637$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.5275438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Phantom44c2,576$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.974,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec7f…ab9ebacked Heroic47c2,412$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,278.362147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf56d…9eeabacked Heroic68c2,218$1,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.6314853.4%79 W · 69 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Phantom45c2,116$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.362,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Phantom32c2,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6401,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd255…4676backed Phantom31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Phantom33c1,976$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.225,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Phantom45c1,972$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.5675245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Phantom49c1,958$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.851,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Phantom30c1,846$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.0148851.8%253 W · 235 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed Phantom32c1,808$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.479146.2%42 W · 49 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Heroic44c1,782$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.561837.9%234 W · 384 L-22.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Phantom45c1,713$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.083,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Phantom38c1,672$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.173,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Phantom32c1,662$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5378047.5%38 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed Heroic53c1,644$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.2919840.9%81 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcae8…63e6backed Phantom8c1,600$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1282524%6 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+33.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Heroic74c1,592$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.9326546.8%124 W · 141 L-18.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Phantom33c1,515$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50059755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Phantom30c1,513$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.945,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Phantom13c1,481$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.4825846.1%119 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked Heroic68c1,471$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.5946165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c2…eef4backed Heroic62c1,413$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.9114151.8%73 W · 68 L+0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69b9…a5d5backed Phantom32c1,405$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.3511354%61 W · 52 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed Phantom19c1,358$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2569850%49 W · 49 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Phantom32c1,291$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.7444747.2%211 W · 236 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Phantom21c1,284$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.895240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Phantom51c1,216$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.912821.4%6 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-54.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Phantom33c1,212$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.992,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed Phantom33c1,200$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.9915838%60 W · 98 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Phantom33c1,145$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3795,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked Heroic67c1,120$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.622266.7%148 W · 74 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Phantom37c1,081$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40052636.5%192 W · 334 L+18.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Phantom32c1,078$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.1324746.6%115 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Heroic69c1,075$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.3626360.8%160 W · 103 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.