Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x326a5e726657c1070ecfe6aa2747e416633b71763dffc2169613f1ff2f3f4cca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 354.21$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.46 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 73c | 285.44$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.06 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 17c | 196.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 173.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…3ec1backed Yes | 26c | 173.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 27c | 136.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 33c | 121.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 30c | 115$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 99.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 71c | 84.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 74.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 31c | 70.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 20c | 66.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 66.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed Yes | 26c | 49.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 31c | 49.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 67c | 49.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 28c | 46.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 43.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 26c | 43.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 70c | 39.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked No | 69c | 38.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 35.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 72c | 31.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 31.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked No | 70c | 28.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa228…99c6backed No | 68c | 26.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 67c | 21.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…72b2backed No | 67c | 20.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf45f…dbfdbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 70c | 18.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 69c | 17.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 17.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 72c | 17.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 77c | 13.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.