Europa Conference League · resolved market
MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x327a62aedd032dae05d0fb1856927ecf39ba0c6d75698271817b30a5b4f3bbff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 40c | 9,085$3,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,606.5 | 128 | 32.8%42 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 60c | 3,803$2,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.93 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 41c | 3,071$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.11 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 59c | 1,883$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.92 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 60c | 1,602$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.24 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 61c | 1,250$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.5 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 28c | 399.28$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.08 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65fa…4c6abacked Under | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…49debacked Under | 63c | 317.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.87 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 61c | 256$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 275 | 45.8%126 W · 149 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.44 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 60c | 247$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.7 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 22c | 218.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 83 | 16.9%14 W · 69 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 77c | 155.12$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc464…5139backed Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 61c | 57.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7636backed Over | 37c | 39.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Over | 31c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 39c | 36.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 40c | 33.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 59c | 31.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 62c | 24.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Under | 66c | 23.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f2…131dbacked Under | 61c | 21.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Under | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: O/U 3.5this page
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: FC Sheriff Tiraspol O/U 1.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: O/U 0.5Over won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: O/U 1.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: O/U 2.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: O/U 4.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: O/U 5.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Sheriff Tiraspol: Team to AdvanceMH Maccabi Tel Aviv won
- Spread: FC Sheriff Tiraspol (-1.5)MH Maccabi Tel Aviv won
- Spread: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-1.5)FC Sheriff Tiraspol won
- Spread: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-2.5)FC Sheriff Tiraspol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.