CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x328f291653e730e8c5b9403bbd69148951860a42022067b745a2829f16e61808
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- paiNof Aurora Gaming, paiN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Aurora Gaming | 0c | 4,499$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed paiN | 57c | 798.34$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.29 | 1,089 | 50.9%554 W · 535 L | +38.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90d9…973ebacked Aurora Gaming | 5c | 722.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb700…b06bbacked Aurora Gaming | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Aurora Gaming | 44c | 399.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.99 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed paiN | 56c | 365.52$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.83 | 242 | 33.9%82 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed paiN | 57c | 116.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee4b…43dcbacked Aurora Gaming | 43c | 110$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 380 | 51.3%195 W · 185 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Aurora Gaming | 44c | 109.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 618 | 54.9%339 W · 279 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed paiN | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 720 | 46.1%332 W · 388 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Aurora Gaming | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 259 | 41.3%107 W · 152 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora Gaming | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 420 | 57.6%242 W · 178 L | +19.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…39dabacked paiN | 61c | 99.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x640c…91c8backed Aurora Gaming | 43c | 64.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed paiN | 56c | 49.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed paiN | 55c | 46.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 859 | 46.1%396 W · 463 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs paiN (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group StageAurora Gaming won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs paiN - Map 1 WinnerpaiN won
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs paiN - Map 2 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.