College Football · resolved market
Will Alabama beat Wisconsin by 17 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x329704f4f1ffbf4ebf2534fa9ccdd5294f95c38eb1bb6201286b1bde73fa2ddf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d16…029ebacked Yes | 54c | 1,183$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked No | 51c | 478.3$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.93 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 49c | 422.96$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.96 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed No | 39c | 360$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1130…f920backed Yes | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Yes | 48c | 282.69$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 30c | 173.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…c3abbacked No | 50c | 140.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Yes | 52c | 125$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d56…d62ebacked No | 52c | 104.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc79d…0203backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Yes | 48c | 101.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…676abacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Yes | 50c | 98.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 50c | 74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…5b91backed No | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3200…d8c8backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed No | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 50.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…6424backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 47c | 37.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…edfdbacked No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alabama beat Wisconsin by 17 or more points?this page
- Will Alabama beat Wisconsin?Alabama won
- Will there be 50 or more combined points scored?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.