Tennis · resolved market
ATP Cincinnati - Nakashima vs. Zverev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32f5298d688ae7057d5a5ee5d54eec402d1098674037df889c4833d6d215e91c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zverevof Nakashima, Zverev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Zverev | 76c | 3,407$2,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.67 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Nakashima | 24c | 3,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Nakashima | 23c | 2,100$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.06 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Nakashima | 18c | 2,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.8 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Nakashima | 14c | 1,832$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.36 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…0a10backed Zverev | 74c | 1,784$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.51 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Nakashima | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Zverev | 77c | 1,306$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.09 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Zverev | 77c | 927.26$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.27 | 129 | 49.6%64 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Zverev | 74c | 715.38$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2719…28ddbacked Nakashima | 28c | 601.32$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.42 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Nakashima | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Zverev | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nakashima | 26c | 386.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Nakashima | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…120dbacked Nakashima | 13c | 338$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Nakashima | 22c | 333.18$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Zverev | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Nakashima | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Nakashima | 13c | 196.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe259…b890backed Nakashima | 19c | 167.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Zverev | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Nakashima | 30c | 122.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6df7backed Nakashima | 10c | 112$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc287…f30dbacked Zverev | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Zverev | 76c | 61.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Zverev | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…28c3backed Zverev | 77c | 51.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 167 | 61.1%102 W · 65 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Zverev | 76c | 45.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Zverev | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fb…2b2abacked Zverev | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Zverev | 77c | 17.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.