Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C or higher on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x330a8c78d3b1f14f38427253e44c6b86e09cac05a83e1cda40c0aec364fc7d3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 67c | 317.71$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 79c | 223.48$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 68c | 212.71$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…d1b9backed Yes | 79c | 156.05$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 24c | 141.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 21c | 88.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 20c | 85.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed No | 25c | 77.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 26c | 74.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b7…f18dbacked No | 22c | 54.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 39c | 49.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 39c | 46.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2de…0811backed No | 35c | 45.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 59c | 41.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…d898backed No | 48c | 37.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc600…a575backed No | 31c | 34.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fb…478cbacked Yes | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 80c | 21.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…3b41backed Yes | 75c | 17.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…4f54backed Yes | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1777…4e65backed Yes | 80c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C or higher on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.