Europa Conference League · resolved market
SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. SK Brann: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x333f41d39636a17910a06a5b46d08c4e0f2a5a480ac5f4d1f5d593355399b38f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 1,572$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.81 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 73c | 855.94$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.67 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 31c | 599.99$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.63 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 26c | 531$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.06 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -8.0wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x026c…8d76backed Under | 68c | 177.59$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Over | 32c | 141$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 32c | 131.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Over | 29c | 62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 65c | 59.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc34…799dbacked Over | 35c | 51.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Over | 33c | 48.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Over | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 31c | 43.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Under | 68c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Under | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Under | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 69c | 30.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a1…be8bbacked Under | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Under | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 67c | 22.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 73c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed Under | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed Under | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. SK Brann: O/U 3.5this page
- SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. SK Brann: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. SK Brann: O/U 1.5Under won
- SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. SK Brann: O/U 2.5Under won
- SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. SK Brann: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.