Tennis · resolved market
Pegula vs. Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x334f89f3a7e36b2ac7ef228197620137f839670a900d9ff902ca8b0ff563afc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0900…3e1dbacked Over 2.5 | 40c | 10,700$4,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…9b1abacked Under 2.5 | 60c | 10,700$6,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,280 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 925.9$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.39 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 463.64$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 975 | 40.1%391 W · 584 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under 2.5 | 58c | 250.34$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.57 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…9b8cbacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 223.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x485d…fc8abacked Under 2.5 | 64c | 170.88$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.88 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Over 2.5 | 34c | 164.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over 2.5 | 31c | 152.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…e0edbacked Under 2.5 | 67c | 149.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under 2.5 | 54c | 145.03$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.71 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over 2.5 | 34c | 128.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…980bbacked Over 2.5 | 47c | 127.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Over 2.5 | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Under 2.5 | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…4568backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x817e…537ebacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b71…9fcdbacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 107.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4161…272dbacked Over 2.5 | 45c | 79.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…232fbacked Under 2.5 | 60c | 74.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under 2.5 | 57c | 73.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba4f…7ecebacked Over 2.5 | 50c | 65.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over 2.5 | 28c | 63.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…1e04backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 60.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 58.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 310 | 53.2%165 W · 145 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under 2.5 | 60c | 51.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Over 2.5 | 49c | 50.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,144 | 54.2%1,162 W · 982 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfce…5c3ebacked Under 2.5 | 59c | 50.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb28d…5af8backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Under 2.5 | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over 2.5 | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,128 | 27.9%315 W · 813 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…dac9backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed Over 2.5 | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 26.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 7,100 | 49.7%3,530 W · 3,570 L | +107.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5845…dd25backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 25.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3d…ebeabacked Over 2.5 | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Under 2.5 | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…28f4backed Under 2.5 | 70c | 22.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over 2.5 | 50c | 20.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pegula vs. Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Elena RybakinaRybakina won
- Pegula vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Pegula vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs RybakinaRybakina won
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5)Rybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.