Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6beb25e49927f58543596dcfe602862b9d65d00119e5d2c5a39c091b6e084b65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rybakinaof Rybakina, Pegula
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x437c…f458backed Pegula | 60c | 3,450$2,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,054.55 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Pegula | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…e644backed Rybakina | 65c | 1,611$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.52 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…69fbbacked Rybakina | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.8 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pegula | 35c | 1,043$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.18 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Rybakina | 41c | 958.56$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.55 | 129 | 49.6%64 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…e0edbacked Rybakina | 68c | 739.48$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.48 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…e668backed Pegula | 60c | 606.4$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Pegula | 63c | 500$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…5ce9backed Rybakina | 50c | 439.68$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.55 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c9…5e53backed Rybakina | 65c | 430.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.56 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Rybakina | 38c | 400$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Rybakina | 41c | 399.98$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.99 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Pegula | 58c | 373.28$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.29 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rybakina | 40c | 364.61$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.76 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…980bbacked Pegula | 59c | 341.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Pegula | 12c | 327.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Pegula | 12c | 296.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 579 | 39.7%230 W · 349 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Pegula | 39c | 284.82$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Pegula | 33c | 284.28$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.81 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Rybakina | 44c | 226.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.58 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Rybakina | 44c | 225.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.05 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rybakina | 46c | 224.29$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.76 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Rybakina | 36c | 223.72$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.28 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Rybakina | 43c | 210$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 142 | 43%61 W · 81 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…778dbacked Rybakina | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Rybakina | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Pegula | 41c | 185.59$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 243 | 40.3%98 W · 145 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…178cbacked Rybakina | 45c | 164.44$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Pegula | 56c | 153.23$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.81 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…8d9bbacked Rybakina | 67c | 149.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 319 | 41.4%132 W · 187 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2e…78b1backed Rybakina | 42c | 135.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.71 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 53cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Rybakina | 42c | 131.64$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 328 | 37.5%123 W · 205 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Rybakina | 45c | 103.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 437 | 49%214 W · 223 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…dea9backed Rybakina | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Pegula | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Rybakina | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Rybakina | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Rybakina | 37c | 93.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bae…e6c5backed Pegula | 34c | 93.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 178 | 18%32 W · 146 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Rybakina | 55c | 91.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…4568backed Pegula | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…466abacked Rybakina | 42c | 72.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Rybakina | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…2d66backed Rybakina | 68c | 61.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Rybakina | 76c | 58.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 216 | 55.6%120 W · 96 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Pegula | 32c | 47.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4892…27bcbacked Pegula | 60c | 45.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…584dbacked Rybakina | 44c | 45.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Pegula | 31c | 36.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Rybakina | 40c | 36.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ace…b219backed Rybakina | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadde…e21dbacked Pegula | 60c | 33.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c0…2995backed Rybakina | 78c | 32.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…90a3backed Pegula | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 488 | 52.9%258 W · 230 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5)this page
- Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Elena RybakinaRybakina won
- Pegula vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Pegula vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Pegula vs. Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs RybakinaRybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.