Tennis · resolved market
Pegula vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb0234ea3a5660e00324ac1c9c7d0d915f8f0f97c2ebd86631ac4218b0e41de3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4cb…4d21backed Under | 44c | 3,650$1,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x454f…04e7backed Over | 56c | 3,650$2,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…e668backed Over | 59c | 1,167$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.06 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Under | 41c | 871.65$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.38 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Over | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.46 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 41c | 817.09$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.01 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 493.71$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.94 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…980bbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…7276backed Over | 59c | 88.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 271 | 47.2%128 W · 143 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 42c | 68.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4161…272dbacked Over | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…f872backed Over | 58c | 42.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3675…e4cdbacked Under | 43c | 37.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pegula vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 21.5this page
- Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pegula vs Elena RybakinaRybakina won
- Pegula vs. Rybakina: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Pegula vs. Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Pegula vs RybakinaRybakina won
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5)Rybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.