World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33542c8ac3cb67dc101938f55cda87cca3bcfdd3f9c3f31ed78d61624678206b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 2c | 950.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 533.01$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 329.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 20c | 273.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 265.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 249.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 211.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…3660backed Yes | 15c | 199.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 10c | 168.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 79c | 150.64$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 140.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 13c | 130.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…01d6backed Yes | 19c | 129.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 122.74$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 17c | 118$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 27c | 118$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 103.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 79cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 24c | 64.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 29c | 61.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 19c | 60.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 28c | 48.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b334backed Yes | 23c | 43.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 80c | 43.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd7…19bfbacked No | 74c | 35.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…bc70backed No | 75c | 33.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 76c | 29.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 29.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 23.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 75c | 23.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 73c | 21.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…b192backed No | 79c | 20.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 18.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 74c | 17.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 78c | 15.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 77c | 15.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 14.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 75c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 75cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 12.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0f…229abacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.