World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaf02228438add091d0ff7f7388955102de6f075fc06c413195e20b8a48f70a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 1,141$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.73 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 1,099$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.37 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 551.72$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.43 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 56c | 535.4$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.4 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 51c | 479.19$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.39 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 44c | 455.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.92 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 47c | 353.9$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.46 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…09b8backed Yes | 75c | 352.93$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.39 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 47c | 352.16$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.29 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 51c | 332.6$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.18 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 52c | 322.18$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.78 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 265.34$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.77 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 51c | 241.77$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.07 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 44c | 218.37$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.04 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 210.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.55 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 43c | 201.83$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.41 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 192$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 40c | 179$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes | 43c | 178.07$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.32 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes | 76c | 170.19$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 11c | 163.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 55c | 162.4$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.44 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 39c | 150.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.9 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 143.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 52c | 140.7$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 13c | 135.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 53c | 130.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 118.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 117.88$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 50c | 115.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 45c | 107.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 49c | 104$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 47cpaid | -59%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 48c | 102$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…ae5dbacked Yes | 65c | 96.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 69c | 95.39$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e9…eac3backed Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 56c | 89.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 88.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed No | 58c | 86.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 40c | 83.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 48c | 79.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.46 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 47c | 75.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 60c | 67.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 45c | 63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 58.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1427backed Yes | 76c | 58.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 57.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1519…6f14backed Yes | 41c | 56.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 67c | 55.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 47c | 53.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5d…38eabacked Yes | 50c | 50.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 56c | 47.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked Yes | 66c | 47.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 41c | 46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 49c | 45.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 49c | 45.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3f…6951backed Yes | 37c | 45.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 44.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 39.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 53c | 37.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 54c | 36.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 50c | 36.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed Yes | 41c | 35.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 42c | 35.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 53c | 34.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 42c | 34.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 55c | 34.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…680abacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 58c | 34.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 54c | 33.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…c72cbacked Yes | 79c | 32.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…bc44backed Yes | 78c | 31.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 57c | 31.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 46c | 31.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 42c | 31.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 57c | 30.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 53c | 30.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 68c | 29.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 29.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.