TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,589
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,586

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,589 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1839…a2a2backed Yes3c1,142$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0970%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbec…808bbacked Yes30c1,098$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3307623.7%18 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d15…4a14backed Yes1c808.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked No68c747.77$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.645957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes33c695.73$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.381816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-51.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes23c631.86$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.635843.1%25 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No71c596.86$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.5332748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes33c500.21$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.994233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes22c456.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004748.9%23 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No68c367.95$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.5214959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes29c349.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005341.5%22 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No69c309.84$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0321854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No72c281$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.7713646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb8e2…c595backed Yes30c266.64$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804951%25 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed No76c221.8$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.86955.1%38 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No71c216.77$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9444138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No72c216.38$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.667353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes29c204$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.684240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No71c181.83$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.155054%27 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes27c179.38$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5112055.8%67 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes24c177.92$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9623723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No73c176.88$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.765072%36 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick72cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d41…24d7backed Yes51c176.18$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902035%7 W · 13 L-4.4wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-49.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes27c175.17$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.983010%3 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-82.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No75c173.6$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.41770.6%12 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick75cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa05f…0003backed Yes31c168.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.285248.1%25 W · 27 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4cc…2a5ebacked No67c168$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.56944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No71c160$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.413268.9%91 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No75c158$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.517952.5%94 W · 85 L-15.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c151.84$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1788448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fc9…d91cbacked No68c146.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No74c146.2$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.074862.5%30 W · 18 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes32c141.63$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7916934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No73c133.06$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1712040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No65c131.62$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.346346%29 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes24c131.2$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323161.3%19 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.19per pick42cpaid+39.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No73c124.69$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1923459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes26c114.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.313030%9 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8cd…ed53backed Yes27c112.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf26a…625cbacked No75c111.44$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda58…6009backed No72c110$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.91190.9%10 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.25per pick66cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No70c110$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.334841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a20…c1b5backed Yes59c107.2$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes28c106.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.855052%26 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf697…c72cbacked Yes36c102.46$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No66c101.65$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7444428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.869337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4079…7126backed No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36a2…b8fabacked No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285855.2%32 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No53c99.99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.23360.6%20 W · 13 L+5.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+48.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes27c99.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2218035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No76c99.99$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes22c98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4860%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked Yes25c96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a3…09b8backed No77c95.63$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.212458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No70c93$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1231152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No74c92.26$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5627143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed No65c90$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.111053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No72c89.96$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.952751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf956…9bf0backed No75c86.27$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.95683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+62.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No72c84$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.628558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes24c82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0115036.7%55 W · 95 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8688…27fbbacked Yes30c80.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.99540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No62c78.93$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.964566.7%30 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No74c76.89$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8918158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xacb0…4346backed Yes35c71.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.851855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+40%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2693…28a3backed No70c71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.483100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3e6…6423backed Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204045%18 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No74c65.57$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1626355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes29c63.21$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.553321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x874b…4af0backed Yes23c63.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.241145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No72c62.73$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7332639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.216738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.013046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No70c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.85945.8%27 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4415766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No73c59.81$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8713155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes34c59.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+23%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No67c58.79$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3823551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No75c58$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.57842.3%33 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc43…1271backed Yes52c57.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd63a…90a6backed No67c56.58$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick64cpaid+36%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No66c53.7$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2121844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes48c52.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1112640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No72c52.06$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.437450%37 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes24c52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.718739.1%34 W · 53 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No64c51.08$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4115056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes34c50.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9411045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked No60c50.01$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.15251.9%27 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.92454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No71c48.96$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2715954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes27c48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.94714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef49…d27bbacked Yes27c46.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cb…6882backed No65c45.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.16560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes28c45.42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.933545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad43…1427backed Yes43c45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No74c44$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4410243.1%44 W · 58 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked Yes46c43.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick50cpaid-75.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes32c43.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.083212.5%4 W · 28 L-5.4wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-82.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.