World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83e36c66a3f263045804c11d3725f4839704dbc0e20af38c31664864f4872c04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1839…a2a2backed Yes | 3c | 1,142$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 30c | 1,098$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d15…4a14backed Yes | 1c | 808.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 68c | 747.77$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.64 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 33c | 695.73$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.38 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 23c | 631.86$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.63 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 596.86$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.53 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 33c | 500.21$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.99 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 22c | 456.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 367.95$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.52 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 29c | 349.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 309.84$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.03 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 281$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 30c | 266.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed No | 76c | 221.8$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 216.77$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 72c | 216.38$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 29c | 204$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 71c | 181.83$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 27c | 179.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 24c | 177.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 176.88$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 51c | 176.18$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 27c | 175.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 75c | 173.6$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed Yes | 31c | 168.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked No | 67c | 168$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 160$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 158$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 151.84$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…d91cbacked No | 68c | 146.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 74c | 146.2$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 32c | 141.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 73c | 133.06$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 65c | 131.62$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 24c | 131.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 124.69$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 26c | 114.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Yes | 27c | 112.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26a…625cbacked No | 75c | 111.44$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 66cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a20…c1b5backed Yes | 59c | 107.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 28c | 106.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…c72cbacked Yes | 36c | 102.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 101.65$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a2…b8fabacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 22c | 98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 25c | 96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a3…09b8backed No | 77c | 95.63$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 93$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 92.26$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 72c | 89.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…9bf0backed No | 75c | 86.27$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 24c | 82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…27fbbacked Yes | 30c | 80.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 62c | 78.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 76.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 35c | 71.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2693…28a3backed No | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 65.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes | 29c | 63.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 23c | 63.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 73c | 59.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes | 34c | 59.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 58.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc43…1271backed Yes | 52c | 57.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd63a…90a6backed No | 67c | 56.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 64cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 53.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 52.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 72c | 52.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 24c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 51.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 34c | 50.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked No | 60c | 50.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 48.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 27c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 27c | 46.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 65c | 45.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 28c | 45.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1427backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 74c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 46c | 43.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 32c | 43.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.