Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x336effc482bbd7716a1dd77de3b86c3d32dffad61d80aa574519089dc01a20ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 1,242$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.95 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 32c | 414.92$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.65 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 52c | 400$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 78c | 381$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 32c | 281.47$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 27c | 260$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 39c | 232.11$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.64 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 7c | 210.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 20c | 209.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 52c | 199.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.18 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 53c | 189.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 23c | 183.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 19c | 163.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 47c | 160.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.37 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 159.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 74c | 150.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.82 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 56c | 146.72$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.13 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 47c | 146.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 76c | 139.96$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 60c | 136.64$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.66 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 61c | 135.11$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 60c | 125.81$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 120.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 114$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 65c | 107.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 61c | 101$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 40c | 92.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 91.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 61c | 90.27$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 51c | 87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 85.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 60c | 83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 82.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 75c | 81.52$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 23c | 70.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 43c | 70.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 67.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 56c | 63.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d4…9705backed Yes | 69c | 57.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 40c | 56.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 75c | 56.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 68c | 54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 42c | 53.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 54c | 46.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 54c | 44.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 55c | 43.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 42c | 42.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 40.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 46c | 39.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 59c | 37.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 58c | 32.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…6747backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 46c | 29.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 60c | 27.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…e2a5backed No | 48c | 27.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dba…3de8backed No | 54c | 25.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe60…56f5backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 72c | 22.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 51c | 22.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 72c | 22.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 74c | 17.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C or higher on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.