College Football · resolved market
Louisville vs. Miami: O/U 50.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x339bfccf529a627867f2f8fc371e14b4984925e05d80586c17b821d6a0e3df15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 54c | 5,793$3,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,637.5 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 46c | 3,473$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.84 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 52c | 3,105$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.8 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7be6backed Under | 48c | 3,090$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.8 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 45c | 1,621$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.9 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 1,375$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.05 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 47c | 1,332$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.04 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Over | 47c | 572.72$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.18 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Under | 52c | 187$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…2e7fbacked Under | 55c | 157.53$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 36.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…a9e5backed Over | 53c | 36.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Louisville vs. Miami: O/U 50.5this page
- Louisville vs. MiamiLouisville won
- Louisville vs. Miami: O/U 49.5Under won
- Louisville vs. Miami: O/U 51.5Under won
- O/U 52.5Under won
- Spread: Miami (-10.5)Louisville won
- Spread: Miami (-12.5)Louisville won
- Spread: Miami (-13.5)Louisville won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.