Spread: Miami (-13.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd798d6a5e5b8ce91a572743560e6e9babfe55caa27d7d696190841145c3c7687

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Louisvilleof Miami, Louisville
Resolved: Oct 18, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $255,497
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $261,716

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $255,497 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in College Football
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Miami	45c	150,451$67,590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67,590.42	125	49.6%62 W · 63 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Louisville	55c	47,454$26,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21,354.3	104	48.1%50 W · 54 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Louisville	55c	35,293$19,411 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,881.65	756	51.9%392 W · 364 L	+20.6wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Louisville	53c	27,628$14,643 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,984.97	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Louisville	55c	20,000$11,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,000	73	42.5%31 W · 42 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x220c…43c8backed Miami	45c	20,000$9,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,000	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-30%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Louisville	55c	19,106$10,508 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,597.7	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Louisville	55c	18,386$10,060 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,325.41	193	62.2%120 W · 73 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	63cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Miami	46c	15,000$6,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,900	56	39.3%22 W · 34 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Louisville	49c	10,720$5,261 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,459.57	95	40%38 W · 57 L	-6.7wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Louisville	50c	10,304$5,152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,152.21	327	45.6%149 W · 178 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Louisville	56c	5,986$3,352 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,633.66	48	68.8%33 W · 15 L	+5.1wins	+0.11per pick	58cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2913…730ebacked Louisville	50c	4,035$2,018 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,017.7	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+78.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c35…8406backed Miami	50c	4,035$2,018 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,017.7	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7301…252fbacked Louisville	49c	3,550$1,739 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,810.38	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa63e…722ebacked Miami	51c	3,550$1,810 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,810.38	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Louisville	55c	3,000$1,650 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,350	381	42.5%162 W · 219 L	-10.2wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Miami	51c	2,393$1,220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,220.43	261	47.9%125 W · 136 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Louisville	54c	2,248$1,213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,034.58	818	47.9%392 W · 426 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Miami	43c	2,082$898 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$897.6	859	47.7%410 W · 449 L	+14.9wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Miami	46c	1,043$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	58	46.6%27 W · 31 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Miami	52c	1,000$515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515	148	36.5%54 W · 94 L	-11.5wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe2b7…c5fabacked Louisville	50c	880.82$440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$440.41	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0e9…7b24backed Miami	50c	880.82$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440.41	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa585…a793backed Miami	47c	800$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6737…2e6abacked Louisville	53c	800$424 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$376	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+88.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Miami	51c	729.41$372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$372	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e07…c0d4backed Miami	50c	691.14$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.57	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Miami	44c	606.97$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.07	157	34.4%54 W · 103 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Miami	44c	534.18$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.04	107	53.3%57 W · 50 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f02…7104backed Louisville	57c	526.32$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$226.32	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	48cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Louisville	49c	410$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$209.1	132	53.8%71 W · 61 L	+8.0wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1ff…6e26backed Miami	47c	400$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	64cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd97e…0b97backed Louisville	53c	400$212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Miami	44c	310$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.4	209	50.2%105 W · 104 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x038f…4535backed Miami	46c	300$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3678…d0a5backed Miami	51c	250$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	57cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedc7…4fafbacked Louisville	49c	250$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0d3…8743backed Miami	47c	248$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.29	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Louisville	55c	222$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.87	2,013	49.6%999 W · 1,014 L	+24.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Louisville	48c	209.96$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.18	568	44.5%253 W · 315 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Miami	51c	205.47$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.79	47	51.1%24 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Miami	46c	195.65$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	302	53%160 W · 142 L	+10.7wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa492…a079backed Miami	51c	186.27$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	25	52%13 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ef4…a034backed Louisville	54c	174.41$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.23	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+78.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e1…57f1backed Miami	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Miami	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	113	54.9%62 W · 51 L	+7.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56bb…8e6bbacked Louisville	56c	91.02$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.09	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.8wins	-0.14per pick	44cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1a0…9b9abacked Miami	44c	90.91$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Louisville	54c	74.07$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.07	219	41.6%91 W · 128 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02f7…b17abacked Louisville	55c	70$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.5	88	45.5%40 W · 48 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f55…bae8backed Miami	44c	68.18$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf63…b05bbacked Louisville	54c	60$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.6	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x65f6…8333backed Miami	46c	54.35$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0338…4f11backed Louisville	55c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Miami	47c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	241	57.3%138 W · 103 L	+9.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7541…09d1backed Louisville	56c	44.64$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.64	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-4.9wins	-0.15per pick	50cpaid	-35%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Miami	44c	40.91$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd65d…a9e6backed Miami	52c	40.12$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.86	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	57cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd774…82cdbacked Louisville	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	160	50%80 W · 80 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Miami	52c	36.33$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.89	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	29cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Louisville	57c	35.79$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.39	57	38.6%22 W · 35 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5339…6821backed Miami	44c	27.7$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.19	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfca9…cb3dbacked Louisville	57c	26.32$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.32	43	27.9%12 W · 31 L	-7.1wins	-0.16per pick	44cpaid	-46%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x5ab9…c906backed Louisville	56c	22.73$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+12%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Miami (-13.5)this page
Louisville vs. MiamiLouisville won
Louisville vs. Miami: O/U 49.5Under won
Louisville vs. Miami: O/U 50.5Under won
Louisville vs. Miami: O/U 51.5Under won
O/U 52.5Under won
Spread: Miami (-10.5)Louisville won
Spread: Miami (-12.5)Louisville won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Miami (-13.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event